Tuesday, March 10, 2020

What's next?

So we didn't raise the funding. What does that mean?

First off, if you made a contribution, IndieGoGo automatically processes refunds in 5-7 business days.

Second, it means that we can't make these cars. At least right now.

Third, we will be taking everything we've learned and see how to proceed, most likely with a different project. One of the biggest things we learned is that it is far, far more difficult to get the word our across to the modeling community than we anticipated. With the various online forums, Facebook, and Historical Societies, we expected that we'd be able to spread the word faster than we did.

Being a New Haven modeler, I also found the capabilities of the historical societies to get the word out quickly to be much less than expected. Most of them still communicate through their mailing lists and publications, which need a much greater lead time than we could provide this time.

The New Haven Historical and Technical Society has been involved in several projects with Rapido and has done very well. On the forum it was reported that they pre-sold 1,500 of the 8600-series coaches, which are $90 models, and that doesn't include what Rapido has sold on their own. A second run is underway now.

Which led to an obvious observation - we should relaunch with a New Haven model. One that has been high on my list is the BAR and NH XIH insulated box cars in the State of Maine paint schemes. Only a few paint schemes, and the only real variations being the removal of the heaters over time.

Well guess what - Eastern Seaboard Models has posted information and CAD drawings of their first HO scale project on Facebook. They look fantastic (and I also realized I did not have them on our manufacturers page. just added). So that's not going to be the project for our relaunch, but I look forward to adding a couple to my layout.

We'll be at the Valley Forge Prototype Modelers meet and hope to see you there. At this point we're back in market research mode and want to know what you think!

Most likely the relaunch will be different prototypes, but we'll see. We're already looking into several options and we'll keep you posted!


Thursday, March 5, 2020

What does it take to make a model? Why so much?

Reminder: We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

What does it take to make a model?
Subtitled: Why is this a $250,000 project?
Sub-subtitled: Can you do only one of these cars if you don't raise enough money?

Good questions, so I'll explain how we've chosen to approach this project and why.

Tooling and Related Costs

As many of you know, injection molded models are produced by cutting molds (dies) out of metal (usually steel, but can be aluminum), and these are used in a machine that injects melted plastic under pressure to fill the molds and make the parts. This is also known as the tooling.

The parts are connected to sprues, which are made by the channels in the tooling to allow the plastic to get to the parts.

There are two basic types of molds, two-part (a top and a bottom) and multi-part. Two-part are less expensive, but a multi-part mold (top, bottom, sides, and ends) allows you to make a one-piece body. Slides let you have removable parts of the multipart mold (whether it's ends, or perhaps just the fan housings on top of a locomotive), so you can have multiple variations of a given model.

A multi-part mold is more expensive, but this is typically offset by lower assembly costs, at least partially.

For this example, I'm assuming a mold will average $5,000, and we'll assume a multi-part mold is $10,000. There are variables, but this will make the math easier.

In a typical box car model, you might have 6 or more molds:

  • Body (multi-part mold)
  • Roof
  • Doors and ends
  • Underframe
  • Details
  • Trucks (multi-part mold)

So this example is $30,000 on tooling costs.

Depending on the company, you may have additional fixed costs for design and CAD work, etc. We'll say $4,000 for the basic design work, plus another $2,000 for 5 paint schemes. There are also fixed costs in regards to decorating (the pad printing designs and pads, or tampos), plus you'll pay for several sample models along the way. So we'll allocate $4,000.

While shipping from China can vary a bit, it's somewhat predictable and we'll allocate $5,000 for that. And you'll want to insure that in case the boat sinks.

So that's $45,000 in fixed costs.

Per-Unit Costs

Production costs are a fixed price per unit. This includes the materials, assembly, decoration, and packaging. This will vary from project to project, and we'll say $15/unit. In theory, this can be less for a large run, but generally not in the quantities that are produced for model railroading.

In addition, you'll be paying a percentage of the SRP/sales price for credit card fees/IndieGoGo fees, etc. In addition, you'll want a bit of a buffer to cover unforeseen expenses. We'll set these costs as a very conservative 25%.

Setting the Price

I tend to work backwards at this point. For example, let's see if we can make this a $30 freight car.

25% ($7.5) is going to various fees, and another $15 to production costs, so that's $22.50 of our $30. That leaves $7.5 per car to pay for the fixed costs, requiring 6,000 units to break even.

And what's the total cost of the project?

$180,000

6,000 units is a lot of freight cars. And we have 5 paint schemes and as many variations as we can fit in the molds (more on that in a moment).

A typical run might be more like 3,000 units.

What if we set a $50 price? The 25% is now $12.50 and the cost per car is $27.50. But it means that we have $22.50 per unit to put toward fixed costs, and it only needs a 2,000 unit run. That's potentially a $100,000 project.

This assumes that all of the models are sold at the SRP, which is not the case. We're offering up to a 20% discount for those that pledge early, and dealers get larger discount. So that $50 box car is actually a $40 (or less) box car.

$40 car, less 25% ($10), less $15 = 3,000 units. But the average price per car sold when you factor in dealers is probably $32-35/car, if not lower.

I think you get the point. By our calculations, we would need 3,000 units. at an SRP of $50, to be sold at various discounts. Once we completed our calculations, we ended up at a $150,000 to $200,000 project.

Can we Sell 3,000 units?

Good question. Here's how we could split up our first project:

  • 40' CGW and L&N Single Sheathed Auto Cars; or
  • 40' PM/C&O Single Sheathed Auto Cars and rebuilt box cars; or
  • RI 40' Single Sheathed Box Car; or
  • ATSF Bx-11, as delivered, and with 12" roof extension; or
  • ATSF Bx-11 as delivered, and with 8" roof extension; or
  • ATSF Bx-12, as delivered, and with 12" roof extension; or
  • ATSF Bx-12 as delivered, and with 8" roof extension; or
  • ATSF Bx-13 class; or
  • ATSF Bx-11, -12, 13 class steel side rebuild

Would any single one of these sell 3,000 units? Maybe. But too much of a risk for us, even if we could somehow come up with the $150,000 to do it.

The problem with cars like these is that they don't share enough parts. Paradoxically, if we look at them as a much larger project, it looks more viable.

A Different Approach

Here's a picture with two different part sprues from other models:

An interesting thing about cutting tooling in China, is that both of these molds would have cost the same amount. It's more about the die size than the number of parts in the die. So one thing that we can do is add more parts. One option is to run multiples of the same part, thus requiring fewer parts to be run. But we looked at another option - add parts that aren't needed for this model.

For example, the project needs the wood running board as shown. But there's plenty of room for additional parts, so lets add some doors that have never been produced. We want to maximize the molds' capacity, although often the specific parts needed for a model aren't a good fit for a specific mold (or might use a different type of plastic, and therefore can't share a mold).

When the factory assembles a model, they start by cutting everything off of the sprues and organizing them in bins. They then follow the instructions for whichever model they are building. Extra parts are boxed in bulk and sent with the finished product. There's no additional tooling cost, we simply pay for the materials cost. That's actually better, though, because they prefer to purchase the plastic by the drum or rail car. So the extra cost, if any, can be minimal.

To do the ATSF Bx-11, -12 and -13 cars requires two different ends and roofs. Two roofs can fit on one sprue, and the ends will fit on another, but it's not maximized yet. So we can fit two more sets of ends, one for the RI car, and one for the 12" raised roof.

But the raised roof version needs a new roof too, which means we need to add another sprue. That leaves half a sprue which can be used for the RI roof.  So that adds another sprue and $5,000 of tooling.

To add the 8" roof variation requires another pair of ends, which also requires a new sprue, but we can add ends for the auto cars as well. Another $5,000 in tooling.

So to do the cars that we think are most likely to sell, the ATSF cars including the two different height raised roofs, also happens to provide enough space for the RI cars. But it drives the tooling up to $40,000. And we need two additional trucks, which are multi-part molds, which drive the fixed costs up more. But we also have a head start on the auto cars.

You get the idea. By maximizing the tooling, we get additional variations for a fraction of the cost of producing them on their own. While one approach would be to do one variation for the first run, and then additional variations on future runs, we would still have to sell 3,000 units split between only one or two variations.

By running them all at once, we can split 6,000 units between 17 variations. Which means we need to average 400-500 units per variation. In addition, with so many variations, we increase the likelihood that modelers will purchase more than one car. So far, our average order is 3 cars.

Other Options?

For us, there aren't any other options. We can't fund a project like this ourselves. For these specific prototypes, splitting up the project seems even less likely to work.

Another manufacturer could decide it's worth running one or more of these prototypes. We'd love it if they do, but we don't think it's likely either.

If we don't reach our funding goal, we'll go back to the drawing board and find another project that we think we can successfully fund for our first project. Once we've done that, we may revisit these prototypes.

But we still think there are a lot of you out there that want to these cars. So let's do it now.

Project #1: The Models

We are producing models for all of the following cars in this run:
  1. ATSF 124000-125999 Bx-11/12/13 classes
  2. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 8" extended roof
  3. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 12" extended roof
  4. ATSF Bx-11/12/13 classes rebuilt with steel sides
  5. C&O 289450-290349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  6. C&O 289350-290349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  7. CGW 80000-80978 series Pratt truss auto cars
  8. L&N 46000-46399 series Pratt truss auto cars
  9. PM 89350-90349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  10. PM 89350-90349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  11. RI 141000-142999 series tall Pratt truss box cars

All models will be produced Ready-to-Run with class and era-appropriate details and lettering with an SRP of $50. All major paint schemes worn by the cars will be produced.

Reweigh dates will be within 6 months of when a paint scheme was applied, or as close to that as our research allows. Additional reweigh decals will be included.

Decorated or undecorated kits will also be available at the same price, but will include extra parts.

Parts will also be available separately.

We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

Other Variations

There were several other variations of these cars. A number of the Santa Fe cars received roof hatches for special service, newer steel side rebuilds with flush sliding ("plug") doors, and others that received Transco steel sides are a few. All of these are variations that we'd like to consider, providing the project raises enough additional funding.











Saturday, February 15, 2020

Can Model Railroading Change the World?

Reminder: We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

Can Model Railroading Change the World?

Well that seems like a bold question.

Robert Fripp, guitarist for King Crimson, posed a similar question to the band - "Can music change the world?" But it got me thinking, and I think that the answer is, "yes, model railroading can change the world."

Or at least our little part of it.

I think this is human nature. Whether it's movies, sports, video games, or model railroading, we like to share our passions with other like-minded individuals. My modeling often takes a back seat to helping others, going to operating sessions, train shows, etc. But it's also those get-togethers that inspire me to do more, so I have something new to share. It's also not just sharing my successes, but helping my modeling buddies and celebrating theirs.

It's about a Community

It's a small community of people operating to a common goal, making a small part of the world, our own world, a better place. And in the long run, I think it influences us in the rest of our lives, trying to find ways to replicate the fun that I (and we) have with modeling.

That desire for being a bigger part of the community is part of why I started my website. I figured if I found something interesting or useful, there's probably somebody else who would too. So I'll make it accessible.

I found the same thing working at True Line Trains. That by and large, the people I met online, via email, phone, and in person, all are excited and passionate about their modeling, and want to share it.

What I think differs in modeling than, say, a community of sports fans, is that it's a creative endeavor.

We are improving ourselves as we learn new skills and get better at others. We can also share those skills to help others achieve their modeling goals and dreams, and take advantage of the skills of our modeling buddies in ours. It's more than just reminiscing about that big win. It's a steady stream of small and big wins across our own localized modeling community. And most of my friends have other modeling buddies outside my immediate circle, spreading the goodwill farther than just my circle of friends. With the internet, it spreads even farther.

So yes, I think we can have an impact on the world, and I think we do whether we know it or not.

This isn't new of course. Formal and informal communities have had an impact on the world around them for as long as there have been people. The Amherst Train Show donates thousands of dollars each year to different projects and organizations, such as Railroad Museums, which have an impact on their local communities as well as tourists. Another local train show is to raise money for the High School Band. It's really part of the message of the, "Greatest Hobby in the World," shows.

I know it has certainly changed my life, with loads of new friends. It's changed it enough that I feel that one way or another I need to be part of the industry itself. To be a part of making the hobby itself what it is.

That's part of our Business Model

That was one of the big sparks for Prototype Junction - the "why" behind Prototype Junction. Sure, John and I want the models too. But we can get and build the Westerfield kits for the Santa Fe cars, and I have the Sunshine kit for the Rock Island car. We could scratch-build the auto cars, or hope that Speedwitch or somebody else might produce them, or even produce them as 3D prints.

So it's not really about the models. It's because we want to to be part of that community of modelers who are passionate about the models we're involved in bringing to market. I have no idea if/when True Line Trains is going to be producing anything else.

I can't afford to fund such a project myself. I've got a daughter who is disabled to the degree that she lived the first 8 years of her life in the hospital. Our savings is long gone. We all have our issues, and this isn't to say I'm special or my problems are worse than somebody else's. It's just a challenge I have to address to become a model train manufacturer.

So what options do we have? And what options do we have to share the experience, the fun, and the excitement of being part of the process with others? 

The answer, at least to us, is obvious. Crowd funding. Then it's not just our project, or John's and mine. It's our project. We all get to contribute, and we all get to be a part of the experience. We have some very, very excited contributors that really want to see this work. For us, but also for them. Not just because they want the models. They get it. It's bigger than me, or John and I, or even a dozen people.

We think there are a lot of people who want to have a bigger part of manufacturing models, but without having to have the responsibility of actually doing it. That's fine. I've met many, many people who have suggestions of what "should" be made.

John and I are willing to stand up and say, "OK, let's do it."

But you, the modelers, need to do your part and help us get there. Let's make this first project a success not only to get some cool models, but to set up a framework to produce more models. Even better, we'll have a Community of modelers that can work together to decide on future models.

So tell us about how model railroading has changed your world. And if you are as passionate about modeling as us, join us in our Community of Backers and let's make some models.

--

Project #1: The Models

We are producing models for all of the following cars in this run:
  1. ATSF 124000-125999 Bx-11/12/13 classes
  2. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 8" extended roof
  3. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 12" extended roof
  4. ATSF Bx-11/12/13 classes rebuilt with steel sides
  5. C&O 289450-290349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  6. C&O 289350-290349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  7. CGW 80000-80978 series Pratt truss auto cars
  8. L&N 46000-46399 series Pratt truss auto cars
  9. PM 89350-90349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  10. PM 89350-90349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  11. RI 141000-142999 series tall Pratt truss box cars

All models will be produced Ready-to-Run with class and era-appropriate details and lettering with an SRP of $50. All major paint schemes worn by the cars will be produced.

Reweigh dates will be within 6 months of when a paint scheme was applied, or as close to that as our research allows. Additional reweigh decals will be included.

Decorated or undecorated kits will also be available at the same price, but will include extra parts.

Parts will also be available separately.

We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

Other Variations

There were several other variations of these cars. A number of the Santa Fe cars received roof hatches for special service, newer steel side rebuilds with flush sliding ("plug") doors, and others that received Transco steel sides are a few. All of these are variations that we'd like to consider, providing the project raises enough additional funding.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

But wait! There's more!

Reminder: We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

And now the News.

We were notified by IndieGoGo that we can extend the pledge period for our project. Only once, and to a maximum of 60 days from the launch date. An unexpected but welcome development.

We are also continuing to look at what we're doing. Why are we only at 7%? We think we've picked some cool and interesting models that have a broad appeal. They ran through a long period, 1929-'70s, with the most variations between 1941 and the '60s before their inevitable decline.

So spread the word, let your modeling buddies know that there's still time, and we'll get this done.

As a reminder for those that have pledged, we're assuming that you're pledging to receive the models a year or so from now, and that you will continue to support the project as we continue to work to secure the funding.

As always, if you decide you don't wish to continue to support the project, you can cancel your pledge at any time. We cannot extend the IndieGoGo pledge period beyond March, 9 2020, and if we don't meet our funding goal by then, all money will be refunded automatically by IndieGoGo in 5-7 business days.

Project #1: The Models

We are producing models for all of the following cars in this run:
  1. ATSF 124000-125999 Bx-11/12/13 classes
  2. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 8" extended roof
  3. ATSF Bx-11/12 classes with 12" extended roof
  4. ATSF Bx-11/12/13 classes rebuilt with steel sides
  5. C&O 289450-290349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  6. C&O 289350-290349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  7. CGW 80000-80978 series Pratt truss auto cars
  8. L&N 46000-46399 series Pratt truss auto cars
  9. PM 89350-90349 series tall Pratt truss auto cars
  10. PM 89350-90349 series Pratt truss box cars (converted from auto cars)
  11. RI 141000-142999 series tall Pratt truss box cars

All models will be produced Ready-to-Run with class and era-appropriate details and lettering with an SRP of $50. All major paint schemes worn by the cars will be produced.

Reweigh dates will be within 6 months of when a paint scheme was applied, or as close to that as our research allows. Additional reweigh decals will be included.

Decorated or undecorated kits will also be available at the same price, but will include extra parts.

Parts will also be available separately.

We are crowdfunding this project and it is vital that you make your pledge to back our project on our IndieGoGo page by March 9, 2020 or it will not move forward. We were able to extend the funding period once. The IndieGoGo terms allow a maximum 60-day funding period, and we cannot extend it beyond that date.

Other Variations

There were several other variations of these cars. A number of the Santa Fe cars received roof hatches for special service, newer steel side rebuilds with flush sliding ("plug") doors, and others that received Transco steel sides are a few. All of these are variations that we'd like to consider, providing the project raises enough additional funding.



Monday, January 27, 2020

Post-Springfield Project Update


We saw a lot of people who were very excited about the project and our approach and we hope to see a good bump in the funding. The info about the models is all on the IndieGoGo page, but what seemed to interest people the most is how we're doing this and why.

I started working toward this project a couple of years ago, but it really moved forward once I found a partner who shared the same enthusiasm in what is perhaps an unusual approach to a company, and was willing to jump in with both feet.

For those of you who read my blog (or my buddy Chris Adams') then it isn't really a surprise that I (and John) are the sort of people who are "all in" when going to a show like Springfield. As reflected in our blogs and modeling we look forward to this every year.

But it's not for the shopping, or the deals, or even for the new announcements. All of that is great, and it really helps us get moving on our projects too. But ultimately it's about the people. We have friends from all over that come to the show, and while we get to see them at the show, we also make sure that we maximize the time we can spend together. 

My layout wasn't ready to operate this year, but Chris had an ops session on Thursday for folks from out-of-town and they had a blast. Chris and I hosted our annual dinner in the parlor car at the Steaming Tender on Saturday (well, Chris. I wasn't much help this year). Then another annual dinner on Sunday at the Student Prince in Springfield. A common thread among all these was laughter and fun. Trains too, but most of all, laughter and fun.

It's amazing to be part of an all in community. Model railroading isn't the only community like this. Sports is a great example of a base of fans where a certain percent are all in.  For most of us it's fun to go to a game every once in a while, but the superfans make it an event of a lifetime. Every. Time. 

But what I find different about model railroading, is that it's not just something you participate in from the sidelines. You are part of the team. It's not just about building my railroad and having a bunch of "fans" to come see it. It's about building all of our railroads. I think our modeling is even better when are part of that team. 

Sure, you can participate by watching videos, reading magazines, and stuff on the web. You can go a step further and join some forums. But I think that as people, we really thrive the most when we're all in. We work on each others layouts, I'm always on the lookout for things any of my train buddies need, we get together for ops session, work, sessions, and shows when we can. We often make models that will be on each others' layouts, etc. And Springfield is one of those really special occasions where we can get together in a larger group. Anybody who has been to one of the Prototype Modelers Meets will tell you the same thing - it's really about the people and the fun we have doing what we love to do to have fun.

That's the model for Prototype Junction.

Sure, we have some models we want to make. And it might seem like we're just another company that is looking to get pre-orders so we can make the models we want. Or maybe you want to participate by buying a model once they are released. You might not want to participate in this project at all, or you might be super excited that we're doing a car you've wanted for decades.

All of that is wonderful, and it's easy to see us and what we're doing in that way. But it's not really how we see it. 

It's about a new community

To us, it's about expanding that community. There are plenty of companies making great models, and we want more from them, and more companies too. But there are a lot of models that they aren't making. They can only make so many. In some cases, like the New Haven Railroad Historical and Technical Association, there is a community already in place, with a board that is willing to help fund projects that otherwise wouldn't be done.

We want to build a new community. Actually, several overlapping communities. For example, there are HO scale modelers that are building layouts set in the pre-depression era. Some are focused sometime in the '30s, or WWII. Of course, there are post-war modelers, '50s, etc. There are also communities centered around specific railroads, of course.

But there are freight cars that are needed for many of these smaller communities. The cars in our first project were built in 1929, and many ran into the '70s. They are heavily represented through the '50s, and the number of variations increased between 1940 and 1960. 

So it looks like a good starting point for a new community, and hopefully the first of many. We're looking for a community of 2,000 or more people who share our passion for modeling and are that type of all in modeler. That want to be part of the process itself, in getting the models made that we want. Just like we share our expertise on our modeling buddies layouts, we want to share our access and expertise with this new community.

While we've selected this as the initial project because we think it makes sense, our hope is that our Backers will want to participate and choose the next project. It really becomes very simple -  what's the next group of models we want? As a group.

Parts of a project don't have to be related

A project doesn't have to be something that John or I want for our layout. It can be anything. A boxcar built in 2013. In S-scale. Oh, wait, you can only sell a couple hundred? 

We designed the first project to offer as many options as we could, specifically because we didn't think any one of them would sell enough on their own. For example, it's quite unlikely that we'd be able to sell 3,000 units of the singled sheathed auto cars we've included in this project. They only share a few parts with the ATSF and RI car and would normally be considered as a separate project. But because we don't really care if each car pays for itself, by combining multiple projects together, we can make them viable. 

In this project, we don't have to sell 3,000 single sheathed auto cars. We just need to sell an average of fewer than 400 cars per prototype. That could be 4 CGW cars, 127 L&N cars, 712 PM cars, and 357 C&O cars, etc. 

So another approach would be to consider making that 2013-built box car, and producing it in N-, HO-, S- and O-scale. It's all about finding creative ways to combine multiple projects in a way that it builds a community large enough to support the project, not one specific car.

I've done this before. When at TLT and we produced the CP Minibox, Gene Green was looking for somebody to produce Klasing brake wheels. Why not? So I told Darren I wanted to add it to the tooling for the Minibox. As long as it fit on the sprue it wouldn't add anything to the cost of production, and it was irrelevant that it wouldn't be used on the Minibox.

As it turned out, the factory decided it would be better to make the wheel out of etched metal. So it did cost some money, but Darren was willing to try rolling it into the cost of the project to see how it worked.

For the first couple of months, he was right. We sold maybe two packs. We sold a bunch at Springfield that year, but then my buddy Ted Culotta mentioned them on his blog. We sold out in about a week. It took me a little while to find where the bump came from, because I didn't know Ted was going to post it either.

Another thing we've learned is that the factory often prefers to cut new tooling, rather than pull partial tooling from another project. This isn't to make more money, it's just simpler. For example, may detail parts like brake appliances can be used on multiple projects. And while they could make a mold that could be used on multiple projects, it's easier to just use the same CAD and fit the parts into the sprues for the new project, rather than pull a palette of steel dies out and find the one from an earlier project.

But each sprue is designed around a certain cavity size that can be filled in the tooling. And in many cases, there is a lot of unused space. Space that can be used to add parts for something that's not related to the current project.

This is why the most of the cost of this project is tied up in the ATSF cars. We can do 4 or 5 pair of ends on one sprue. So if we reduce the number of models, we just have fewer ends on that sprue, but don't really save any tooling costs because we still need that sprue for the ends we'll still use. The ends for the Auto Cars don't fit the ATSF cars, but they are cast on the same sprues.

It's really about the possibilities

So sure, you can look at this as just another freight car to buy for your layout. And we hope to have lots and lots of folks that it's all they want. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be part of  choosing how much texture should be on the side of a model of a single sheathed car, or whether wire or plastic grab irons are a better choice, or even what prototypes to produce. We all have our own idea of what's fun in model railroading, and that's kind of the point.

But we are also looking for the people that see the bigger picture. We think we can build a community to creatively leverage the process and advancements in technology to make what you and we want, not just what I or John want.

We love the other manufacturers, and there's a list on our page so you can see what they're making too. We don't want to compete with them, we are not saying or even implying they are bad. What we want to do is fill in the gaps. Do the things they don't. 

Project #1 is just the beginning. Join our community of Backers so we can do what you want. 

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Springfield Day 2



Waiting for day 2 of the Amherst Railroad Hobby Show in Springfield to start. Outside it's warm and clear, so we're hoping for another great turnout.

For me, this is really what it's all about. 20,000+ people who love model railroading. There are few things in life that I find people are as passionate about as they are about their hobbies. Something I've always found interesting is that when you meet somebody and ask what they do, they almost always tell you what their job is. 

I'm a musician, a role-playing gamer, and a model railroader, in no particular order. I recently realized that stuff that I love to do the most, and that really are part of what makes me who am, I had discovered and was doing by 3rd grade. Of course, in life we have to do many other things besides what we love, and often that takes precedence. Here at the show, there's no question about what fires people up.

A common discussion I see online is, "the hobby has gotten so expensive." While I find that an interested topic of discussion, what I also find interesting about it is that for the people who are really passionate about whatever it is they are doing, the price really doesn't enter into it. In fact, that's probably a better measure than almost anything as to what somebody really values. You see it on eBay all the time. Like a $50 or $75 plastic caboose that sells for $270. 

But seeing hundreds of people who just want to come over and talk trains for two days is an amazing way to start off the new year and makes me excited to get moving on my projects and get prepared to host some operating sessions and open houses for the NE Prototype Meet May 29 and 30 this year. 

I've got dozens of "show friends" that I pretty much only see at shows, we catch up on our projects, and figure out what each of us can do to help the other with what they are building. Then we do the same thing at the next show we see each other.

There are some lone wolves out there, and of course plenty of casual modelers too. But I just love the community of those who are really passionate about what they do and love to share it with others. The "crazy" people like me that will spend hours discussing the fine points of track construction, freight cars, or the differences between an I-4-e and I-4-f locomotive.

Two things I look forward to, almost more than the show itself, is our annual dinner in the parlor car at the Steaming Tender, and Sunday dinner at the Student Prince. While there's a little overlap, it's really two different groups of friends having a beer and a great dinner and talking about trains. 

See you at the shows, and if you're going to be in CT and want to come see the layout, just let me know.

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Cocoa Beach...and we're off!

Don't forget to go here to join Project #1

Cocoa Beach

I had a great time in Cocoa Beach. Each Prototype Meet has its own feel and character, and this one is a lot of fun. I've been trying to get there for years, and next year we'll make sure John can make it too.

"What about the launch," you ask?

I think it went really well. The response was quite positive, and as I expected there were some great question and ideas for the project. Many of these are things that we should be able to include.

But Sales are Slow

We have had enough visitors to the site in the first week to fully fund the project already, even if the only option selected was $47, but very few are choosing to participate. But why?

Here's some thoughts as to why:

1. Unknown quality of models

That's fair, as we have no way of displaying our models yet. But stupid me didn't think of putting up examples of the work that this factory has produced in the past. Until I was trying to sell an extra model I had a Cocoa Beach.

This project was injection molded, with lots of etched parts as well.



The factory we are using cut the tooling, and produced these as RTR models and undec kits as well. The box and auto cars won't be this complex, but the quality of the tooling will be the same.

2. A new approach with potential risk

We've addressed this already, but I think it bears repeating. This is a new approach, but one that has been used successfully in many industries and hobbies. The biggest risks fort the Backers in a manufacturing project like this are:

Lack of expertise in the Project owner
Raising insufficient funds

As you can see, we've been involved in creating complex injection-molded models in the past. In addition, we are using a factory that we have worked with before, to ensure that the process is as predictable and routine as possible.

Lack of cash flow is among the biggest reasons why projects like this fail, crowd funded or not. We know what it will cost to produce this, and will not move forward unless we raise the full funding required to produce the project. Not just to cover the cost of tooling, but to cover the actual production, packaging, shipping from China, credit card processing fees, etc.

Remember, we aren't drawing a paycheck during this process, and won't realize any profit until after the models are delivered to you.

3. Can you make only one of the variations if you don't reach your funding?

Not really.

The car that we felt will be the best seller is the 12" raised roof version of the Bx-12. The difference between that and the as-built version of the cars is a new roof and ends. Because we can tool 4-5 pair of ends on a single sprue, doing that one car or the delivery of the Bx-11, -12, and -13 cars, plus the RI car is roughly the same amount of tooling, and the same cost. It goes up incrementally since it now requires 3 different trucks, rather than one, but that accounts for a very small amount of the total cost of tooling. There are additional costs such as packaging, painting and lettering, shipping from China, samples, credit card processing, and other fees, etc. As the cost of the project increases, the number of units required does too. 

To do the only the ATSF cars it ends up as a $200,000 project and a minimum of 4,000 to 5,000 units depending on the actual average sale price after discounts.

So we have a prototype that probably won't sell 4,000 units, what are our options? By putting a little more into additional tooling, we can add two distinctly different options - the steel-side rebuilds and auto cars. This increases the funding required by only 25%, but we think it greatly increases the possibility of success. Modelers from 1929 to the '60s can reasonably be expected to want at least two cars from this project. With the major variations/road names we need less than 500 units on average per prototype to make this work. That looks much, much better.

Another consideration is that not all of those pledging want the same models.

We considered a common approach with what are called "Stretch Goals," where we start with one model at a lower funding goal, then add additional prototypes if we reach additional funding goals. We felt this was a poor choice for model railroading, because many modelers might be pledging because they want one of the Stretch Goals, and it's possible that that model wouldn't be produced in the end.

No, we felt it was more honest and a better approach to simply require that we fund for all of the prototypes we're offering up front, so you know that as long as we fund the project we will be making the car you want.

4. Somebody else will do it, and I won't have to help fund it

Of course that's possible too. But the numbers I provided above are in the ballpark of every project I've been involved in over the last decade or so. Somebody with in-house expertise for cutting their own tooling, etc.,  rather than at the factory may be able to reduce the cost. But those companies also have their staff to pay for and other expenses we don't. In particular the need for each project to help fund the next project. We are selecting "niche" products precisely because we think these models are very unlikely to be produced using the traditional approach. Because the risk is too high for the manufacturer. So we think it is unlikely that anybody else will produce these models in plastic.

5. You don't know us

For many of you, that's true. Although I've been blogging about my modeling for over a decade (http://newbritainstation.com), and if you ask on the Steam Era Freight Car lists, and others, there are certainly a lot of well-known modelers that know at least one of us, and in many cases have been friends for years. 

But that's also one of the reasons we are requiring a fully funded project. With some crowd funding approaches, only some of the funding is raised, and the Creators expect to fund the rest. That seems very risky to us, and we want to make sure that we all know whether this project is a go or not. Either we choose, as a community, to make this models happen, or we don't.

If you have any questions at all, please contact us. Even if it's just to tell us why you won't participate.

While it looks like we're a long way away today, the reality is that we don't need that many more people to join us. We've had enough visitors to the site to fund this project several times over. We know that it's a small segment of the market that is going to help fund this. But we're also confident there are enough of you to do so.

Join Us!

We've selected a group of prototypes that nearly ever modeler for the 1929-1960s could use at least two, and probably more.

We will be at Springfield at the Better Living Center, 25-G. Come see us in person and we'll answer all your questions.

Pledge Early

One of the things we can't tell is whether people are holding off to see if others pledge. This sort of thing is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a lot of people pledge, and pledge early, then others join too. If they don't, then others don't.

IndieGoGo holds the money and we don't have access unless we fully fund. So there is really no reason to wait to pledge. If you want the cars, then pledge early, and spread the word. We know people are interested in the cars, but they need to see that others are too.

Join our community of Backers today and let's make some models - together.